Subscribers Only
China – May foreign trade
Foreign trade growth surprised to the upside in May. But the trend is still down, with export growth likely slowing to zero in the next few months.
Subscribers Only
China – May inflation
Overall inflation moderated in May, and the leads for both PPI and core CPI continue to suggest China isn't likely to see higher inflation in the next few months.
Public Post
Japan – May EW survey
Despite all the headwinds, the outlook for the economy looks quite solid, with RGDP likely to be growing 2-3% YoY in the next few months.
Public Post
Taiwan – May exports
The USD level of exports remained elevated in May, but it is increasingly likely that shipments will be falling in the next 6M.
Subscribers Only
Taiwan – May CPI
Inflation is high relative to history, but remains modest compared to much of the rest of the world, and there aren't yet signs of a sharp acceleration from here.
Public Post
The China Diviner
No, it isn't only Hu Xijin who cares about growth. The government does too, albeit these days more because of the debt burden and politics than employment. But policy stimulus is underwhelming, seemingly because of a logjam in thinking: how to get more investment growth, but no more debt.
Public Post
China – where we're at
There's been more policy loosening, but it remains incremental. Upside risks to activity do exist as FCI continues to lift, but it is difficult as yet to get too excited about the outlook.
Public Post
Japan – Q1 profits
Profits declined in Q1 as input prices rose. Non-manufacturing margins, however, remain fairly high, and overall capex growth in Q1 was stable at 3% YoY.
Public Post
Korea – May CPI
The BOK was right to be hawkish at its last meeting. There was a broad-based acceleration in inflation in May to the highest rate since mid-2008.
Subscribers Only
Korea – May exports
While exports are still growing YoY, it is feeling more likely that they will soon be contracting. The main risk to that is any policy easing in China which causes the cycle there to accelerate strongly.
Public Post
Taiwan – May PMI
The PMI suggests Taiwan is experiencing a usual down cycle in manufacturing. The caveats to this conclusion are that the recent slowdown has been worsened by the covid disruption in China and continuing supply shortages.
Public Post
Japan – May consumer confidence
Consumer sentiment remains very weak. However, a turn up is starting to take shape, and that could gain real momentum if the April-May moderation in inflation expectations continues, and a further relaxation of covid restrictions encourages a more vigorous recovery in services activity.
Public Post
Japan – April labour market
The labour market data in April were positive, albeit more in the sense that the labour market is growing rather than necessarily tightening. That's good for aggregate earnings, but means a rise in individual pay might still be some way away.
Public Post
China – May NBS PMI
The May PMIs are backward-looking; clearly the bigger story right now is the easing of covid lockdowns. But today's surveys are still useful, suggesting there are some important headwinds to how fast a recovery there can be from here.
Subscribers Only
China – May small business survey
The first end-of-month sentiment survey for May was even weaker than in April. That suggests the economy is still contracting. Against that, it was mildly encouraging that prices also weakened, inventories seem to be low, and financing availability didn't deteriorate too much.
Subscribers Only
China – where we're at
Covid numbers finally show real signs of turning, clearing the way for a cyclical recovery in June. But the policy response doesn't yet feel strong enough to add much to the upside.
Public Post
The China Diviner
Reading the western media, and it seems the strongest market in China right now is for doom and gloom. Which is striking, as the short-term cycle is likely close to a trough, while there are reasons to think the longer-term outlook isn't as bad as the spate of the-end-is-nigh headlines suggests.
Subscribers Only
Taiwan – April monitoring index
Regional leads are deteriorating, and are certainly pointing to a slowdown ahead. But the message from the indicators is somewhat mixed, so for the moment the slowdown looks likely to be modest rather than particularly sharp.
Subscribers Only
Japan - May Tokyo CPI
There's probably a bit more upside in CPI from here, but data for Tokyo in May fit with the idea that inflation momentum is starting to ease.
Subscribers Only
Japan – April services PPI
Headline services PPI accelerated sharply in April to 1.6% YoY, then highest since at least the 1990s. But that was mainly due to the surging cost of international freight services. Domestic services inflation is rising, but more modestly.
Public Post
Korea – May BOK meeting
The BOK was hawkish today. It raised rates; revised up its forecasts for inflation; and added to its statement a new phrase that the “Board sees it as warranted to conduct monetary policy with more emphasis on inflation for some time”.
Public Post
Korea – May business sentiment
At the margin, today's business sentiment data likely tilt the BOK to remain more hawkish for a bit longer. Korea isn't facing stagflation. Rather, as has been the case recently, growth is strong and inflation rising inflation. Given that backdrop, there's likely more tightening ahead.
Subscribers Only
Korea – Q1 consumer credit
With the credit:GDP ratio remaining very high, the recent slowdown in the growth of household credit won't reduce the BOK's financial stability concerns.
Public Post
Korea – May consumer confidence
The strength of buying intentions and especially price expectations in this month's consumer confidence survey will keep the BOK hawkish at its Thursday meeting.
Subscribers Only
Japan – April trimmed mean CPI
Trimmed mean CPI rose again in April to a record high, and there's probably still a bit more upside ahead. But for CPI to take another meaningful step higher, the domestic labour market likely needs to tighten further.