Japan - March services PPI
The services PPI doesn't look as perky as some other inflation leads, but does indicate underlying inflation at least remaining around the current 1% for the next 2-3 months.
The services PPI doesn't look as perky as some other inflation leads, but does indicate underlying inflation at least remaining around the current 1% for the next 2-3 months.
The government, fearing inflation or perhaps CNY weakness, is stepping up easing, but trying rather furtively.
Headline CPI in March rose 1.2% YoY. That leaves inflation below previous peaks in 2008, 2013 and 2017, but the headline CPI data suffer from a lot of distortions, and more accurate measures indicate inflation is already near highs not seen in the last thirty years.
External momentum has softened in recent months, but the downturn hasn't yet become very sharp. Data this week from across different economies suggests that there's no change yet in this picture.
The government's plan right now is to get the virus under control, and then guide companies back to work, thereby lifting the economy out of the covid shock without having to commit to a whole load of new 'stimulus'.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported today that the economy continued to recover in Q1, and overall was "stable". That's quite the positive spin.
Somewhat strangely, Chinese property prices in March continued to show signs of bottoming out.
The Bank of Korea decided today to raise the policy rate by a further 25bp, the fourth hike in this current cycle. From the perspective of BOK leadership - the bank currently being between governors - this was a mild surprise. But from the point of view of the economy, it was less unexpected. Activity has shown signs of peaking, but in recent weeks inflation has become more of a concern. These
YoY export growth is clearly slowing, and while the (somewhat patchy) leading indicators available for Chinese export growth suggest this weakening continues, the downside looks somewhat limited for now.
Even allowing for month-to-month volatility, Japanese machine orders in February were soft.
After the jump in February, it wasn't a surprise that labour market data softened in March. That just looks like a correction though
Export growth remained strong in March. Leading indicators are pointing to somewhat weaker growth ahead.
Korean headline CPI inflation rose again in March to 4.1% YoY. That's the highest since 2011, and well above the BOK's 2% target for inflation.
The cycle has clearly peaked in Taiwan, but the gradient of the slowdown still isn't clear.