China - export growth stops YoY export growth fell to zero in October. More downside is ahead, though surging car shipments suggest autos might buck this trend. Import demand is also slowing. It should contract aggressively in the next 6M, though that looks pessimistic given commodity prices and imports in the PMI.
The East Asia Economist The 1997 double play isn't yet at work, and the HKD doesn't look as over-valued as then. But Hong Kong does now face a double whammy of Fed tightening and zero covid. With maintenance of the peg ultimately being a political decision, the question is how much economic pain the authorities can take.
cycle Japan – warm, not hot Japan's economy is warm, not hot. That will change if the positive consequences of JPY weakness (corporate competitiveness) start to outweigh the negative (lower real incomes). At that point, some of the nonlinear upwards pressures on prices identified by the BOJ will start to become important.
China – summary slides Some slides from a brief presentation I gave yesterday. It was in three parts: the deflation problem; the short-term outlook; and the Congress contradiction.
Korea - close to cutting territory It didn't quite there yet in November, but in the next couple of months business sentiment will most likely be back at levels where, far rather than hiking 50bp, the BOK has historically been cutting.
China – tentative signs of a floor There are signs that the economy is bottoming, in the form of property sales, excavator sales and, to a lesser extent, property starts. These though are tentative, and need to strengthen before concluding the economy is through the worst.
Last week, next week This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region I spent most of last week catching up after being away the previoius week. There was more time to do so than usual, given China was preoccupied with the 20th party congress, an event that seems to have put
China - monetary indicators still mixed With September's monetary data suggesting a further fall in liquidity preference and M1 growth, it still doesn't look like the economy is poised for a turnaround. But it is starting to feel like the risks around the cycle are less to the downside than they have been for the last few months.
Last week, next week I'm taking a few days off next week, so you won't hear from me again until Monday 17th. Meanwhile, this is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region While they are a bit lagging, the Bank of International Settlements publishes the most authoritative cross-country
