Some slides from a brief presentation I gave yesterday. It was in three parts: the deflation problem; the short-term outlook; and the Congress contradiction.
It didn't quite there yet in November, but in the next couple of months business sentiment will most likely be back at levels where, far rather than hiking 50bp, the BOK has historically been cutting.
Inflation expectations rose in October. That will keep the BOK hawkish, even though falling property price expectations add to downside risks for growth into 2023.
There are signs that the economy is bottoming, in the form of property sales, excavator sales and, to a lesser extent, property starts. These though are tentative, and need to strengthen before concluding the economy is through the worst.
This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region I spent most of last week catching up after being away the previoius week. There was more time to do so than usual, given China was preoccupied with the 20th party congress, an event that seems to have put a stop to new economic data releases. It should be busier again next week because the flow of statistics will
The EW survey suggests the economy is growing, but slowly. Inflation is rising, dampening consumer sentiment, and manufacturing sentiment has weakened, but there's some offset from post-covid normalisation. This picture suggests the BOJ can for now continue to tolerate the weakening of the JPY.
Exports fell again in October, and excluding ships, are now down almost 20% from the peak. So far, the weakness is concentrated in shipments to Asia. The real risk is sales to DM will be the next shoe to fall.
Unsurprisingly, export orders fell YoY in September. The weakness remains concentrated in demand from China. Orders from the US and EU have so far remained elevated. The risk is that this demand from DM will be the next shoe to drop.
With September's monetary data suggesting a further fall in liquidity preference and M1 growth, it still doesn't look like the economy is poised for a turnaround. But it is starting to feel like the risks around the cycle are less to the downside than they have been for the last few months.
Korea is starting to look a bit less inflationary, with import price inflation easing, and the labour market no longer tightening. But the BOK remains hawkish, worrying that the weakness in the KRW will drive inflation higher.
While the rest of the world is in inflation, China, at least on a sequential basis, has sunk into deflation. Apart from food and property prices, there's no sign of inflation coming back.
I'm taking a few days off next week, so you won't hear from me again until Monday 17th. Meanwhile, this is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region While they are a bit lagging, the Bank of International Settlements publishes the most authoritative cross-country data on global credit ratios. The Q122 data, released in September, showed that credit relative to GDP in China
Exports fell in August for the second consecutive month. This fall is warning of a sharp downturn in external demand, a development that has regional implications. For Taiwan itself, with inflation low, the CBC likely won't be hiking, meaning more cyclical pressure for TWD depreciation.
Headline inflation is easing, which should start to impact expectations of how much more the BOK will hike from here. But core inflation on a MoM basis remains elevated, supported by rising services prices. That suggests cuts from the central bank aren't a near-term prospect.
The Tankan suggests that growth should be just about strong enough to produce a further closing of the output gap. In this sense, while they aren't particularly solid, some of the foundations are falling into place for a broadening of inflation away from just import costs and goods prices.
Taiwan's manufacturing PMI fell again in September to 44.9. The manufacturing recession means inflation is unlikely to rise further, taking pressure off the CBC to hike. The sharp fall in Taiwan's PMI also continues to signal downside risks for the regional export cycle.
Policymakers have blinked, announcing a raft of measures to support property. On their own, these aren't sufficient to have conviction that the economy will turn. But with improvement in the construction PMI, they do suggest that for the first time in a while, not all the cyclical risks are down.
This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region There's quite a lot of differentiation in macro stories across the region. The export cycle is slowing. That doesn't matter much for policy in Taiwan, which hasn't tightened much, but is an important shift in Korea given the hawkishness of the BOK. The BOJ isn't hawkish, but there will be pressure
Regional exports remain on track to fall by about 10% YoY by the end of 2022. That deterioration will continue to put downwards pressure on currencies, particularly the TWD and KRW, but the pace of depreciation should begin to lessen.
Headline growth in Korean exports slowed to 2.8% YoY in September. Our model points to a further decline in the next few months to around -10% YoY.
Neither consumer confidence nor the labour market were as strong as the previous month. But it does still look like the labour market is starting to tighten, which in turn should help firm up the tentative bottoming out of consumer confidence.
The overall tone of today's PMIs suggests that China's cycle remains weak. However, the construction PMI rose again, and with the official headline manufacturing PMI and input prices creeping up, for the first time in a few months, there is some risk that the domestic industrial cycle is bottoming.
The business sentiment survey for October shows confidence continuing to fall, particularly in manufacturing. It is likely by the end of this year that, for the first time in this cycle, the strength of activity starts to become a concern for policymakers.
Inflation expectations are falling, but remain high in absolute terms. The pace of BOK tightening should slow, but inflation expectations need to be lower, with evidence of actual services price inflation falling, before the BOK goes on hold.
The currency is on the move again. Interest rate differentials suggest fair value for $CNY of 7.3; the weakness of the domestic economy and the over-shooting that normally happens with $CNY moves suggests more upside still. This move increases risks for China's economy, and for global markets.