East Asia Econ (Page 53)

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East Asia Econ

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China - April foreign trade

Exports declined 6% MoM in April, the biggest fall in any normal month since April 2019. As they did then, the lockdowns probably explain some of the decline, and the leads, while clearly pointing down, don't point to the rate of decline in April being sustained. Still, this is an important data point. Across the region, there's growing indicators of a real export slowdown that will

Japan - April Tokyo CPI

Overall CPI inflation in Tokyo rose to 2.5% YoY in April. The measure of all items less food, which is the official target for the BOJ, reached 1.9% YoY, which excluding the sales-tax boosted inflation of 2014, was the highest in several decades. A lot of this reflects rising energy prices, a trend which more recently has started to fade. But core CPI (inflation excluding food and energy

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China - April services PMI

For Li Keqiang and his mission impossible to get to 5.5% growth this year, the only silver lining in the very weak April Caixin PMI was that respondents were somewhat positive about the medium-term.

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Taiwan - April PMI

The robust growth momentum of the last couple of years hasn't completely disappeared, but the foundations are now definitely looking shakier.

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Korea - April CPI

The last BOK monetary policy meeting clearly showed that inflation was front and centre for the bank. Today's inflation data do nothing to change that prioritisation

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Japan - April consumer confidence

Consumer confidence managed to improve in April, but just a touch. The optimistic argument would be this is just the beginnings of a more sustained lift as recovery in the services industry from covid finally gets under way.

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Korea - April exports

The export cycle is showing clearer signs of at lest peaking, if not starting to roll over, with headline YoY export growth slowing again in April from 18.2% in March to 12.6%.

The China Diviner

The government's view that it is homebuilders not homebuyers who are the "speculators" has big implications for where the property cycle goes next, and what that means for the economy.

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China - April PMI

It wasn't a surprise that the official PMIs fell sharply in April, but the charts are nonetheless quite dramatic.

Taiwan - Q1 GDP & March LI

Q1 growth was strong. The official leading indicator for March is pointing to a clear slowdown, but more gradually than the path suggested by equities.

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China - April Politburo statement

The Politburo has gone a step further in supporting the economy, including real estate.

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Japan - April BOJ meeting

With the procyclicality that is built into YCC, not tightening when inflation is rising elsewhere and other central banks hiking necessitates the BOJ stepping up loosening. And that's exactly what the BOJ did at its monetary policy meeting today.

Korea - April business sentiment

Korea's April business sentiment survey reaffirms recent themes for the economy. The cycle is now slowing, but not yet weak, and in fact on its own still strong enough to keep the BOK in tightening territory. At the same time inflation risks remain high. The central bank is likely to remain hawkish.

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Japan - March labour market

It would be tempting even to describe the labour market situation as goldilocks - except that the BOJ wants inflation to rise, and without that actually happening, the bank will keep policy loose, in turn putting pressure on the JPY to depreciate.

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Korea - April consumer confidence

Japan - March trimmed mean CPI

The BOJ's calculation of trimmed mean CPI moved up in March to 1.1% YoY, equal with the previous record high in the series last reached in 2008. The details though were a little soft.

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Japan - March services PPI

The services PPI doesn't look as perky as some other inflation leads, but does indicate underlying inflation at least remaining around the current 1% for the next 2-3 months.

China - weekly update

The government, fearing inflation or perhaps CNY weakness, is stepping up easing, but trying rather furtively.

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Japan - March CPI

Headline CPI in March rose 1.2% YoY. That leaves inflation below previous peaks in 2008, 2013 and 2017, but the headline CPI data suffer from a lot of distortions, and more accurate measures indicate inflation is already near highs not seen in the last thirty years.

Region - March/April exports

External momentum has softened in recent months, but the downturn hasn't yet become very sharp. Data this week from across different economies suggests that there's no change yet in this picture.

China - weekly update

The government's plan right now is to get the virus under control, and then guide companies back to work, thereby lifting the economy out of the covid shock without having to commit to a whole load of new 'stimulus'.

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China - March activity data

The National Bureau of Statistics reported today that the economy continued to recover in Q1, and overall was "stable". That's quite the positive spin.

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China - reserve requirement cut

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China - March property prices

Somewhat strangely, Chinese property prices in March continued to show signs of bottoming out.

Korea - April BOK meeting

The Bank of Korea decided today to raise the policy rate by a further 25bp, the fourth hike in this current cycle. From the perspective of BOK leadership - the bank currently being between governors - this was a mild surprise. But from the point of view of the economy, it was less unexpected. Activity has shown signs of peaking, but in recent weeks inflation has become more of a